【econ20171219】
宏观经济学研讨会 （总第234期）
【时间】2017年11月22日（周三）12：15－13：45
【地点】明商0202教室
【主讲】周璇 中国人民大学经济学院助理教授
【主题】 constrained discretion and central bank transparency（f. bianchi & l. melosi, frb of chicago working paper, 2016）
【摘要】we develop and estimate a general equilibrium model in which monetary policy can deviate from active inflation stabilization and agents face uncertainty about the nature of these deviations. when observing a deviation, agents conduct bayesian learning to infer its likely duration. under constrained discretion, only short deviations occur: agents are confident about a prompt return to the active regime, macroeconomic uncertainty is low, welfare is high. however, if a deviation persists, agents’ beliefs start drifting, uncertainty accelerates, and welfare declines. if the duration of the deviations is announced, uncertainty follows a reverse path. for the u.s. transparency lowers uncertainty and increases welfare.
【主持】陈彦斌 教授
人大宏观经济学研讨会（macro workshop）旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展，倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型，并使用计算机模拟研究经济增长、收入分配和宏观政策等中国宏观经济重大问题。
联系人：刘哲希 email：macro_workshop@163.com
资料下载：www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html
更多讲座信息请访问：econ.ruc.edu.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn。
中国人民大学经济学院 中国经济改革与发展研究院
