【econ201218】
宏观经济学研讨会
（总第123期）
【时间】2012年11月13日（周二）12：15－13：45
【地点】明主0409教室
【主讲】夏晓华 博士 中国人民大学改革与发展研究院讲师。中山大学岭南学院金融学博士，北京大学经济学院应用经济学博士后。
【主题】credit booms gone bust: monetary policy, leverage cycles, and financial crises, 1870-2008（written by moritz schularick and alan m. taylor, american economic review, 2012）
【摘要】the crisis of the advanced economies in 2008-09 has focused new attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. we study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a new historical dataset for countries over the years 1870-2008, using the data to study rare events asso- ciated with financial crisis episode. we present new evidence that leverage in the financial sector has increased strongly in the second half of the twentieth century as shown by a decoupling of money and credit aggregates. we show for the first time how money policy responses to financial crises have been more aggressive post-1945, but how monetary policy responses to financial crises have remained large. importantly, we demonstrate that credit growth is a powerful predictor of financial crises, suggesting that such crises are credit booms gone wrong and that policymakers ignore credit at their peril. it is only with the long-run comparative data assembled for this paper that these patterns can be seen clearly.
【主持】陈彦斌 教授
人大宏观经济学研讨会（macro workshop）旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展，倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型（尤其是bewley模型）并使用计算机模拟研究中国经济改革与发展的重大问题。
联系人：陈伟泽 e_mail: sysu2006vc@126.com
更多讲座信息欢迎访问se.ruc.edu.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn
经济学院
中国经济改革与发展研究院